| Break Out Stocks 2007 Q1 Review |
Once again we are conducting our quarterly review and re-evaluating the stocks on our Watched List to see if we want to keep following them.
We sometimes err in our recommendations and sometimes circumstances change and a stock that had been behaving well starts to head south.
We're also looking for ways to improve our selection and culling criteria and you'll find a review of our previous paring jobs elsewhere. For this effort we are following much the same plan, dropping stocks that meet both of the following three criteria:
And we are dropping any stocks we've had for over a year that have failed to grow by 25% or have had for two years and have failed to grow by 50%. We are making exceptions for stocks that are in a current up trend or are growing earnings. Since it's the year end, we will also drop any stocks that have lost ground over the full year unless they have strong earnings growth or are in a current up trend.
The table below gives the complete picture. We're dropping Zargon Energy Trust whose profits dropped more than 50% this quarter and has been sliding for over a year. Much as I think gold will continue to advance, Goldcorp profits fell over 50% in the last quarter as well and it's chart has been wavering for almost a year. Pacific and Western Credit has had two consecutive quarters of falling profits and has not done well since we profiled it last August. Although I like to keep stocks in the Watched List at least a year, the sliding profitability has led me to drop it. Vicwest Income Fund also had two consecutive quarters of falling profits but the trend is currently sideways and it is up almost 8% for the quarter so we will keep it a bit longer.
It should be noted, of course, that because we are dropping them from our Watched List doesn't necessarily mean they are poor stocks. We've dropped stocks before only to see them catch fire and soar subsequently. It just means that I no longer consider the upside odds very good. I may add one or more back in at a later date.
Note: T = turnaround from loss to profit, L means the company had a loss in the most recent quarter, * means quarterly earnings per share not available.
| Name | Symbol |
Date Featured |
Price Then |
Price End Q4 |
Change Q4 |
Change YTD |
Change Since Profiled |
Recent Trend |
QEPS Change |
Status |
|
Alimentation Couche-Tard |
ATD.B |
Dec. 4/00 |
$2.88 |
$24.14 |
-4.77% |
-4.77% |
739.65% |
i | -18.52% | Keep |
|
Stantec Inc. |
STN |
Apr. 20/01 |
$4.13 |
$31.75 |
25.74% |
25.74% |
669.70% |
h | +100.00% | Keep |
|
ZCL Composites |
ZCL |
June 20/04 |
$2.05 |
$13.70 |
32.37% |
32.37% |
568.29% |
g | +40.00% | Keep |
|
SNC-Lavalin Group |
SNC |
Mar. 23/01 |
$5.42 |
$33.06 |
5.05% |
5.05% |
509.96% |
i | +13.79% | Keep |
|
Zargon Energy Trust |
ZAR.UN |
Jan. 29/01 |
$4.70 |
$25.91 |
4.52% |
4.52% |
451.28% |
g | -59.43% | Drop |
|
Niko Resources |
NKO |
Nov. 17/02 |
$22.20 |
$83.94 |
0.71% |
0.71% |
278.11% |
h | L | Keep |
|
Trican Well Service |
TCW |
Apr. 18/04 |
$6.08 |
$22.85 |
12.45% |
12.45% |
275.82% |
g | -28.57% | Keep |
|
CCS Income Fund |
CCR.UN |
May 18/03 |
$10.15 |
$36.66 |
-2.89% |
-2.89% |
261.36% |
i | -30.43% | Keep |
|
Goldcorp Inc. |
G |
May 25/01 |
$7.83 |
$27.71 |
-16.31% |
-16.31% |
253.90% |
i | -63.33% | Drop |
|
Richelieu Hardware |
RCH |
Dec. 4/00 |
$7.00 |
$23.40 |
-3.47% |
-3.47% |
234.29% |
g | +13.04% | Keep |
|
Finning International |
FTT |
May 11/01 |
$16.40 |
$53.26 |
11.45% |
11.45% |
224.76% |
h | +47.50% | Keep |
|
AlarmForce |
AF |
Sept. 21/03 |
$1.92 |
$5.75 |
12.75% |
12.75% |
199.48% |
h | +150.00% | Keep |
|
Sino-Forest Corporation |
TRE |
Dec. 18/05 |
$4.40 |
$13.10 |
67.31% |
67.31% |
197.73% |
h | +50.00% | Keep |
|
Fortis Inc. |
FTS |
Mar. 16/01 |
$9.50 |
$28.01 |
-5.91% |
-5.91% |
194.84% |
h | +50.00% | Keep |
|
Contrans Income Fund |
CSS.UN |
Oct. 12/01 |
$3.63 |
$10.40 |
-13.48% |
-13.48% |
186.50% |
i | +3.03% | Keep |
|
Aur Resources |
AUR |
Oct. 16/05 |
$8.57 |
$24.30 |
0.16% |
0.16% |
183.55% |
h | +59.09% | Keep |
|
BMTC Group |
GBT.A |
Aug. 20/02 |
$6.98 |
$19.50 |
10.73% |
10.73% |
179.57% |
g | +50.00% | Keep |
|
Steepleback Industrial Group |
SID |
Jan. 18/04 |
$2.95 |
$8.05 |
11.03% |
11.03% |
172.88% |
h | +400.00% | Keep |
|
Cameco Corp. |
CCO |
Nov. 19/04 |
$18.44 |
$47.30 |
0.21% |
0.21% |
156.58% |
h | -47.62% | Keep |
|
CML Healthcare Income Fund |
CLC.UN |
Apr. 12/02 |
$5.85 |
$14.35 |
2.87% |
2.87% |
145.30% |
g | +22.73% | Keep |
|
TSX Group |
X |
Jan. 18/04 |
$22.50 |
$49.25 |
5.66% |
5.66% |
118.89% |
g | +27.50% | Keep |
|
Stella-Jones Inc. |
SJ |
Feb. 19/06 |
$15.75 |
$33.70 |
-2.32% |
-2.32% |
113.97% |
g | +46.43% | Keep |
|
Pason Systems |
PSI |
May 16/04 |
$7.50 |
$14.32 |
7.99% |
7.99% |
90.93% |
g | -13.64% | Keep |
|
Research In Motion |
RIM |
Sept. 19/04 |
$94.82 |
$157.50 |
5.70% |
5.70% |
66.10% |
g | 890.00% | Keep |
|
Gildan Activewear |
GIL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$42.01 |
$68.00 |
24.79% |
24.79% |
61.87% |
h | +3.57% | Keep |
|
Garda World Security |
GW |
Aug. 21/05 |
$12.15 |
$19.10 |
-12.55% |
-12.55% |
57.20% |
g | +53.85% | Keep |
|
Potash Corporation |
POT |
June 19/05 |
$119.85 |
$184.10 |
10.24% |
10.24% |
53.61% |
g | +59.63% | Keep |
|
Dynatec |
DY |
Dec. 20/06 |
$2.21 |
$3.34 |
56.81% |
56.81% |
51.13% |
h | -58.21% | Keep |
|
Le Chateau |
CTU.SV.A |
June 19/05 |
$39.06 |
$56.50 |
-5.83% |
-5.83% |
44.65% |
i | +33.98% | Keep |
|
Teck Cominco |
TCK.B |
Dec. 18/05 |
$57.75 |
$80.49 |
-8.43% |
-8.43% |
39.38% |
g | +60.80% | Keep |
|
Hammond Power Systems |
HPS.A |
Jan. 22/07 |
$7.49 |
$9.95 |
32.84% |
32.84% |
32.84% |
g | +184.62% | Keep |
|
WFI Inc. |
WFI |
May 19/06 |
$16.80 |
$21.99 |
-15.42% |
-15.42% |
30.89% |
h | -25.93% | Keep |
|
Inmet Mining |
IMN |
Oct. 16/06 |
$50.85 |
$63.50 |
1.75% |
1.75% |
24.88% |
h | +112.63% | Keep |
|
Logibec Groupe Informatique |
LGI |
Nov. 20/06 |
$16.25 |
$19.75 |
19.34% |
19.34% |
21.54% |
h | +18.75% | Keep |
|
Ritchie Brothers |
RBA |
Mar. 19/06 |
$59.30 |
$67.48 |
7.99% |
7.99% |
13.79% |
h | -31.71% | Keep |
|
Parkland Income Fund |
PKI.UN |
Sept. 18/06 |
$31.94 |
$34.75 |
-9.72% |
-9.72% |
8.80% |
g | +86.44% | Keep |
|
FirstService Corporation |
FSV |
Feb. 19/06 |
$29.50 |
$31.80 |
17.78% |
17.78% |
7.80% |
h | +30.43% | Keep |
|
Silver Wheaton |
SLW |
July 17/06 |
$10.40 |
$10.93 |
-10.56% |
-10.56% |
5.10% |
g | +175.00% | Keep |
|
Computer Modelling Group |
CMG |
Feb. 19/07 |
$12.89 |
$13.30 |
3.18% |
3.18% |
3.18% |
h | +100.00% | Keep |
|
Golf Town Income Fund |
GLF.UN |
Mar. 19/07 |
$14.02 |
$14.40 |
2.71% |
2.71% |
2.71% |
h | T | Keep |
|
COM DEV International |
CDV |
Sept. 18/06 |
$5.73 |
$5.80 |
-10.22% |
-10.22% |
1.22% |
i | +14.29% | Keep |
|
Carfinco Income Fund |
CFN.UN |
Aug. 21/06 |
$3.88 |
$3.85 |
6.94% |
6.94% |
-0.77% |
g | +28.57% | Keep |
|
RDM Corporation |
RC |
Dec. 20/06 |
$4.20 |
$4.16 |
0.48% |
0.48% |
-0.95% |
g | T | Keep |
|
Foremost Income Fund |
FMO.UN |
June 16/06 |
$17.15 |
$16.65 |
6.39% |
6.39% |
-2.92% |
h | +26.42% | Keep |
|
General Donlee Income Fund |
GDI.UN |
Mar. 19/07 |
$9.85 |
$9.50 |
-3.55% |
-3.55% |
-3.55% |
g | +84.78% | Keep |
|
Ensign Energy Services |
ESI |
Nov. 20/05 |
$20.12 |
$19.35 |
5.22% |
5.22% |
-3.83% |
g | +7.89% | Keep |
|
GMP Capital Trust |
GMP.UN |
June 16/06 |
$22.50 |
$21.52 |
-1.28% |
-1.28% |
-4.36% |
h | +108.70% | Keep |
|
MacDonald Dettwiler |
MDA |
April 16/06 |
$50.40 |
$47.94 |
12.01% |
12.01% |
-4.88% |
g | +4.08% | Keep |
|
Paladin Labs |
PLB |
Nov. 20/06 |
$11.52 |
$10.80 |
1.89% |
1.89% |
-6.25% |
g | +11.11% | Keep |
|
Aber Diamonds |
ABZ |
Jan. 15/06 |
$46.77 |
$43.05 |
0.12% |
0.12% |
-7.95% |
h | +80.77% | Keep |
|
HudBay Minerals |
HBM |
Feb. 19/07 |
$23.90 |
$20.34 |
-14.90% |
-14.90% |
-14.90% |
g | +174.47% | Keep |
|
Commercial Solutions |
CSA |
May 21/06 |
$7.09 |
$5.99 |
-23.69% |
-23.69% |
-15.51% |
g | -22.22% | Keep |
|
Pacific & Western Credit |
PWC |
Aug. 21/06 |
$12.95 |
$10.10 |
-12.17% |
-12.17% |
-22.01% |
i | -41.67% | Drop |
|
Wajax Income Fund |
WJX.UN |
May 19/06 |
$41.79 |
$32.31 |
-5.66% |
-5.66% |
-22.68% |
g | +14.74% | Keep |
|
Vicwest Income Fund |
VIC.UN |
June 16/06 |
$15.98 |
$10.95 |
7.56% |
7.56% |
-31.48% |
g | -15.38% | Keep |
Dropped in Q1 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are Zargon Energy Trust (4.52%, 451.28%), Goldcorp (-16.31%, 253.90%), Pacific & Western Credit (-12.17%, -22.01%)
The information in this table was derived using the Portfolio Tracking feature at globeinvestor.com