| Break Out Stocks 2006 Q4 Review |
Once again we are conducting our quarterly review and re-evaluating the stocks on our Watched List to see if we want to keep following them.
We sometimes err in our recommendations and sometimes circumstances change and a stock that had been behaving well starts to head south.
We're also looking for ways to improve our selection and culling criteria and you'll find a review of our previous paring jobs elsewhere. For this effort we are following much the same plan, dropping stocks that meet both of the following three criteria:
And we are dropping any stocks we've had for over a year that have failed to grow by 25% or have had for two years and have failed to grow by 50%. We are making exceptions for stocks that are in a current up trend or are growing earnings. Since it's the year end, we will also drop any stocks that have lost ground over the full year unless they have strong earnings growth or are in a current up trend.
The table below gives the complete picture. Dropped are Melcor Developments, a stellar performer which seems to have stalled, Transforce Income Fund, also a good performer which lost over 20% during the year, Canada Bread, also a good performer but which has slowed down and suffered a loss in the last quarter, La Senza which has been spectacular this year but has now been delisted after takeover by the Victoria's Secret folks, McCoy which is going nowhere, Pareto, also a non-starter, March Networks which recently lost a major customer and crashed mightily and finally Big Rock Brewery Income Fund which has been sluggish.
It should be noted, of course, that because we are dropping them from our Watched List doesn't necessarily mean they are poor stocks. We've dropped stocks before only to see them catch fire and soar subsequently. It just means that I no longer consider the upside odds very good. I may add one or more back in at a later date.
Note: T = turnaround from loss to profit, L means the company had a loss in the most recent quarter, * means quarterly earnings per share not available.
|
Name |
Symbol |
Date |
Price Then |
Price |
Change |
Change |
Change |
Recent Trend |
QEPS Change |
Status |
|
Melcor Developments |
MRD |
Mar. 2/01 |
$2.03 |
$18.34 |
-4.48% |
54.77% |
803.45% |
i | -52.46% | Drop |
|
Alimentation Couche-Tard |
ATD.SV.B |
Dec. 4/00 |
$2.88 |
$25.35 |
6.24% |
8.33% |
781.74% |
i | +33.33% | Keep |
|
Stantec Inc. |
STN |
Apr. 20/01 |
$4.13 |
$25.25 |
23.47% |
27.04% |
512.12% |
h | +12.5% | Keep |
|
SNC-Lavalin Group |
SNC |
Mar. 23/01 |
$5.42 |
$31.47 |
9.42% |
23.75% |
480.63% |
g | +55.56% | Keep |
|
Zargon Oil & Gas |
ZAR.UN |
Jan. 29/01 |
$4.70 |
$24.79 |
-23.01% |
-21.92% |
427.45% |
i | +87.18% | Keep |
|
ZCL Composites |
ZCL |
June 20/04 |
$2.05 |
$10.35 |
77.53% |
173.09% |
404.88% |
h | +75.00% | Keep |
|
TransForce Income Fund |
TIF.UN |
Jan. 18/02 |
$3.02 |
$13.49 |
-18.83% |
-20.93% |
346.69% |
g | -48.89% | Drop |
|
Goldcorp Inc. |
G |
May 25/01 |
$7.83 |
$33.11 |
25.61% |
27.84% |
322.86% |
i | -6.67% | Keep |
|
Canada Bread Co. |
CBY |
May 18/01 |
$13.00 |
$54.10 |
-8.85% |
-8.31% |
316.15% |
g | L | Drop |
|
Niko Resources |
NKO |
Nov. 17/02 |
$22.20 |
$83.35 |
25.34% |
50.94% |
275.45% |
h | L | Keep |
|
CCS Income Fund |
CCR.UN |
May 18/03 |
$10.15 |
$37.75 |
3.57% |
2.03% |
272.10% |
h | +68.75% | Keep |
|
Richelieu Hardware |
RCH |
Dec. 4/00 |
$7.00 |
$24.24 |
15.37% |
2.28% |
246.29% |
g | +22.58% | Keep |
|
Trican Well Service |
TCW |
Apr. 18/04 |
$6.08 |
$20.32 |
7.91% |
-27.43% |
234.21% |
i | +48.39% | Keep |
|
Contrans Income Fund |
CSS.UN |
Oct. 12/01 |
$3.63 |
$12.02 |
-15.35% |
-14.51% |
231.13% |
g | +16.67% | Keep |
|
La Senza |
LSZ |
April 17/05 |
$14.65 |
$47.99 |
50.58% |
152.58% |
227.58% |
h | 221.05% | Drop |
|
Fortis Inc. |
FTS |
Mar. 16/01 |
$9.50 |
$29.77 |
21.81% |
22.66% |
213.37% |
h | +8.33% | Keep |
|
Finning International |
FTT |
May 11/01 |
$16.40 |
$47.79 |
27.75% |
28.68% |
191.40% |
h | -16.00% | Keep |
|
Aur Resources |
AUR |
Oct. 16/05 |
$8.57 |
$24.26 |
34.78% |
105.94% |
183.08% |
i | +163.64% | Keep |
|
AlarmForce |
AF |
Sept. 21/03 |
$1.92 |
$5.10 |
9.68% |
29.11% |
165.63% |
h | +100.0% | Keep |
|
Cameco Corp. |
CCO |
Nov. 19/04 |
$18.44 |
$47.20 |
15.89% |
27.93% |
156.03% |
h | -9.52% | Keep |
|
BMTC Group |
GBT.SV.A |
Aug. 20/02 |
$6.98 |
$17.61 |
-2.71% |
10.06% |
152.47% |
i | +2.17% | Keep |
|
Steepleback Industrial Group |
SID |
Jan. 18/04 |
$2.95 |
$7.25 |
20.83% |
2.11% |
145.76% |
h | T | Keep |
|
CML Healthcare Income Fund |
CLC.UN |
Apr. 12/02 |
$5.85 |
$13.95 |
-13.19% |
-3.13% |
138.46% |
h | +12.00% | Keep |
|
Stella-Jones Inc. |
SJ |
Feb. 19/06 |
$15.75 |
$34.50 |
64.29% |
119.05% |
119.05% |
h | +81.25% | Keep |
|
TSX Group |
X |
Jan. 18/04 |
$22.50 |
$46.61 |
-4.92% |
-0.47% |
107.16% |
g | +14.29% | Keep |
|
Garda World Security |
GW |
Aug. 21/05 |
$12.15 |
$21.84 |
-3.15% |
44.44% |
79.75% |
h | +53.85% | Keep |
|
Sino-Forest Corporation |
TRE |
Dec. 18/05 |
$4.40 |
$7.83 |
83.37% |
58.50% |
77.95% |
h | +33.33% | Keep |
|
Pason Systems |
PSI |
May 16/04 |
$7.50 |
$13.26 |
-15.97% |
-8.24% |
76.80% |
i | +22.22% | Keep |
|
Research In Motion |
RIM |
Sept. 19/04 |
$94.82 |
$149.00 |
30.03% |
94.14% |
57.14% |
g | +52.46% | Keep |
|
WFI Inc. |
WFI |
May 19/06 |
$16.80 |
$26.00 |
3.59% |
54.76% |
54.76% |
g | +78.57% | Keep |
|
Le Chateau |
CTU.SV.A |
June 19/05 |
$39.06 |
$60.00 |
40.35% |
25.05% |
53.61% |
g | +36.36% | Keep |
|
Teck Cominco |
TCK.B |
Dec. 18/05 |
$57.75 |
$87.90 |
25.57% |
41.66% |
52.21% |
g | +17.00% | Keep |
|
Potash Corporation |
POT |
June 19/05 |
$119.85 |
$167.00 |
43.94% |
79.38% |
39.34% |
h | +17.09% | Keep |
|
McCoy Brothers |
MCB |
May 15/05 |
$4.65 |
$6.10 |
-12.86% |
-3.17% |
31.18% |
i | -33.33% | Drop |
|
Gildan Activewear |
GIL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$42.01 |
$54.49 |
0.28% |
8.98% |
29.71% |
i | +27.08% | Keep |
|
Inmet Mining |
IMN |
Oct. 16/06 |
$50.85 |
$62.41 |
22.73% |
22.73% |
22.73% |
g | +188.75% | Keep |
|
Parkland Income Fund |
PKI.UN |
Sept. 18/06 |
$31.94 |
$38.49 |
28.17% |
20.51% |
20.51% |
h | +71.79% | Keep |
|
Silver Wheaton |
SLW |
July 17/06 |
$10.40 |
$12.22 |
16.49% |
17.50% |
17.50% |
i | +150.00% | Keep |
|
COM DEV International |
CDV |
Sept. 18/06 |
$5.73 |
$6.46 |
4.36% |
12.74% |
12.74% |
g | +166.67% | Keep |
|
Commercial Solutions |
CSA |
May 21/06 |
$7.09 |
$7.85 |
15.44% |
10.72% |
10.72% |
h | +55.56% | Keep |
|
Pareto Corp. |
PTO |
Aug. 21/05 |
$1.13 |
$1.20 |
9.09% |
-12.41% |
6.19% |
g | +0.00% | Drop |
|
Ritchie Brothers |
RBA |
Mar. 19/06 |
$59.30 |
$62.49 |
4.48% |
5.38% |
5.38% |
h | +115.38% | Keep |
|
Logibec Groupe Informatique |
LGI |
Nov. 20/06 |
$16.25 |
$16.55 |
1.85% |
1.85% |
1.85% |
h | +200.00% | Keep |
|
RDM Corporation |
RC |
Dec. 20/06 |
$4.20 |
$4.14 |
-1.43% |
-1.43% |
-1.43% |
h | +166.67% | Keep |
|
GMP Capital Trust |
GMP.UN |
June 16/06 |
$22.50 |
$21.80 |
2.59% |
-3.11% |
-3.11% |
h | +33.33% | Keep |
|
Dynatec |
DY |
Dec. 20/06 |
$2.21 |
$2.13 |
-3.62% |
-3.62% |
-3.62% |
g | +110.00% | Keep |
|
March Networks |
MN |
Nov. 20/05 |
$22.50 |
$21.35 |
13.44% |
-33.96% |
-5.11% |
i | -71.88% | Drop |
|
Carfinco Income Fund |
CFN.UN |
Aug. 21/06 |
$3.88 |
$3.60 |
-13.25% |
-7.22% |
-7.22% |
h | +28.57% | Keep |
|
Paladin Labs |
PLB |
Nov. 20/06 |
$11.52 |
$10.60 |
-7.99% |
-7.99% |
-7.99% |
i | +160.00% | Keep |
|
Aber Diamonds |
ABZ |
Jan. 15/06 |
$46.77 |
$43.00 |
20.96% |
-8.06% |
-8.06% |
g | -44.83% | Keep |
|
FirstService Corporation |
FSV |
Feb. 19/06 |
$29.50 |
$27.00 |
1.50% |
-8.47% |
-8.47% |
i | -13.67% | Keep |
|
Ensign Energy Services |
ESI |
Nov. 20/05 |
$20.12 |
$18.39 |
-0.86% |
-21.61% |
-8.60% |
i | +247.37% | Keep |
|
Foremost Income Fund |
FMO.UN |
June 16/06 |
$17.15 |
$15.65 |
-19.33% |
-8.75% |
-8.75% |
i | +82.86% | Keep |
|
Pacific & Western Credit |
PWC |
Aug. 21/06 |
$12.95 |
$11.50 |
-2.13% |
-11.20% |
-11.20% |
i | -23.08% | Keep |
|
MacDonald Dettwiler |
MDA |
April 16/06 |
$50.40 |
$42.80 |
13.53% |
-15.08% |
-15.08% |
g | +19.51% | Keep |
|
Big Rock Brewery Income Trust |
BR.UN |
Oct. 15/04 |
$16.05 |
$13.60 |
-29.72% |
-29.50% |
-15.26% |
i | +21.62% | Drop |
|
Wajax Income Fund |
WJX.UN |
May 19/06 |
$41.79 |
$34.25 |
-2.70% |
-18.04% |
-18.04% |
h | +94.64% | Keep |
|
Vicwest Income Fund |
VIC.UN |
June 16/06 |
$15.98 |
$10.18 |
-43.44% |
-36.30% |
-36.30% |
h | -39.89% | Keep |
| Total Gain | 574.05% | 1031.70% | 7496.98% | |||||||
| Average Gain | 9.90% | 17.79% | 137.02% |
Dropped in Q4 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are Melcor Developments (54.77%, 803.45%), Transforce Income Fund (-20.93%, 346.69%), Canada Bread (-8.31%, 316.15%), La Senza (152.58%, 227.58%), McCoy (-3.17%, 31.18%), Pareto Corporation (--12.41%, 6.19%), March Networks (-33.96%, -5.11%), Big Rock Brewery Income Fund (-29.50%, -15.26%)
Dropped in Q3 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) were Home Capital Group (-11.65%, +923.33%), Peyto Energy Trust (-21.50%, +673.98%), Reitman’s (+11.85%, +656.94%), Falconbridge (+80.64%, 217.47%), RONA Inc. (-1.31%, +65.71%), Western Lakota Energy Services (-11.98%, +61.69%), easyhome (+1.27%, +23.71%), Sherritt International (-3.47%, +12.59%), Xceed Mortgage Corporation (-12.70%, +8.91%), Intrawest (+2.58%, +2.58%), Savannah Energy Services (-36.01%, -5.43%), Royal Gold (-23.63%, -7.76%), Calfrac Well Service (-45.78%, -40.54%), Cryptologic (+7.98%, -41.43%), and Centurion Energy (-39.33%, -52.60%)
The information in this table was derived using the Portfolio Tracking feature at globeinvestor.com