| Break Out Stocks 2006 Q3 Review |
Once again we are conducting our quarterly review and re-evaluating the stocks on our Watched List to see if we want to keep following them.
We sometimes err in our recommendations and sometimes circumstances change and a stock that had been behaving well starts to head south.
We're also looking for ways to improve our selection and culling criteria and you'll find a review of our previous paring jobs elsewhere. For this effort we are following much the same plan, dropping stocks that meet both of the following three criteria:
And we are dropping any stocks we've had for over a year that have failed to grow by 25% or have had for two years and have failed to grow by 50%. We are making exceptions for stocks that are in a current up trend or are growing earnings.
This quarter we are taking a larger slice out of our Watched List by also dropping stocks that have faltered since the beginning of 2005. An example would be Home Capital Group which has been one of our best performers, up 923.33% since we featured it in November 2000, but which is lower today than it was at the beginning of 2005. Same with Peyto Energy Trust, another superb performer which peaked in mid-2005 at around $35 but has since dropped steadily back to $21. We're also dropping RONA Inc. for this reason. And we're dropping four others - easyhome, Calfrac Well Services, Centurion Energy and Cryptologic for this reason. These may be added to our list again in the future if they once again catch our eye by hitting new 52 week highs. But for now we are dropping them.
The table below gives the complete picture. Also dropped per our criteria are Reitman's, Sherritt International, Xceed Mortgage Corporation, Savannah Energy Services, and Royal Gold. We are opting to keep Pareto Inc. because it is our pick in the Globe & Mail's stock picking contest so we will wait until the end of the year and see where it's at then. And dropped because they have been taken over or are about to be taken over are Intrawest, Falconbridge and Western Lakota Energy Services.
It should be noted, of course, that because we are dropping them from our Watched List doesn't necessarily mean they are poor stocks. We've dropped stocks before only to see them catch fire and soar subsequently. It just means that I no longer consider the upside odds very good. I may add one or more back in at a later date.
Note: T = turnaround from loss to profit, L means the company had a loss in the most recent quarter, * means quarterly earnings per share not available.
|
Name |
Symbol |
Date Featured |
Price Then |
Change Q3 |
Change YTD |
Change Since Profiled |
Recent Trend | QEPS Change | Status |
|
Home Capital Group |
HCG |
Nov. 20/00 |
$3.00 |
-5.83% |
-11.65% |
923.33% |
g | +11.63% | Drop |
|
Melcor Developments |
MRD |
Mar. 2/01 |
$2.03 |
12.94% |
62.03% |
845.81% |
h | +47.06% | Keep |
|
Alimentation Couche-Tard |
ATD.SV.B |
Dec. 4/00 |
$2.88 |
-0.54% |
1.97% |
729.91% |
h | -19.23% | Keep |
|
Peyto Energy Trust |
PEY.UN |
Feb. 22/02 |
$2.58 |
-15.84% |
-21.50% |
673.98% |
i | +100.00% | Drop |
|
Reitmans (Canada) |
RET.A |
July 6/01 |
$2.53 |
-4.20% |
11.85% |
656.94% |
i | -51.22% | Drop |
|
Zargon Oil & Gas |
ZAR.UN |
Jan. 29/01 |
$4.70 |
5.30% |
1.42% |
585.11% |
g | +92.68% | Keep |
|
TransForce Income Fund |
TIF.UN |
Jan. 18/02 |
$3.02 |
-1.95% |
-2.58% |
450.33% |
h | +7.89% | Keep |
|
SNC-Lavalin Group |
SNC |
Mar. 23/01 |
$5.42 |
-2.11% |
13.09% |
430.63% |
i | +8.70% | Keep |
|
Stantec Inc. |
STN |
Apr. 20/01 |
$4.13 |
-3.08% |
2.89% |
395.76% |
h | +5.88% | Keep |
|
Canada Bread Co. |
CBY |
May 18/01 |
$13.00 |
-4.96% |
0.59% |
356.54% |
i | +8.43% | Keep |
|
Contrans Income Fund |
CSS.UN |
Oct. 12/01 |
$3.63 |
11.81% |
1.00% |
291.18% |
h | +2.22% | Keep |
|
CCS Income Fund |
CCR.UN |
May 18/03 |
$10.15 |
-1.49% |
-1.49% |
259.29% |
i | +160.00% | Keep |
|
Goldcorp Inc. |
G |
May 25/01 |
$7.83 |
-21.66% |
1.78% |
236.65% |
i | +75.00% | Keep |
|
Falconbridge Ltd. |
FAL.LV |
Mar. 14/04 |
$19.63 |
5.99% |
80.64% |
217.47% |
h | +213.11% | Drop - TO |
|
Trican Well Service |
TCW |
Apr. 18/04 |
$6.08 |
-15.56% |
-32.75% |
209.70% |
i | +114.29% | Keep |
|
Richelieu Hardware |
RCH |
Dec. 4/00 |
$7.00 |
-2.51% |
-11.35% |
200.14% |
g | +22.58% | Keep |
|
Niko Resources |
NKO |
Nov. 17/02 |
$22.20 |
5.49% |
20.43% |
199.55% |
h | L | Keep |
|
ZCL Composites |
ZCL |
June 20/04 |
$2.05 |
16.60% |
53.83% |
184.39% |
g | +300.00% | Keep |
|
CML Healthcare Income Fund |
CLC.UN |
Apr. 12/02 |
$5.85 |
10.45% |
11.60% |
174.70% |
h | 21.43% | Keep |
|
BMTC Group |
GBT.SV.A |
Aug. 20/02 |
$6.98 |
-0.55% |
13.13% |
159.50% |
g | -19.05% | Keep |
|
Fortis Inc. |
FTS |
Mar. 16/01 |
$9.50 |
9.65% |
0.70% |
157.26% |
g | +2.94% | Keep |
|
AlarmForce |
AF |
Sept. 21/03 |
$1.92 |
5.68% |
17.72% |
142.19% |
g | +100.00% | Keep |
|
Finning International |
FTT |
May 11/01 |
$16.40 |
0.56% |
0.73% |
128.11% |
i | +23.53% | Keep |
|
Cameco Corp. |
CCO |
Nov. 19/04 |
$18.44 |
-8.41% |
10.39% |
120.94% |
i | +344.44% | Keep |
|
TSX Group |
X |
Jan. 18/04 |
$22.50 |
9.42% |
4.68% |
117.87% |
g | +17.14% | Keep |
|
La Senza |
LSZ |
April 17/05 |
$14.65 |
33.91% |
67.74% |
117.54% |
h | +218.75% | Keep |
|
Pason Systems |
PSI |
May 16/04 |
$7.50 |
-3.49% |
9.20% |
110.40% |
i | +133.33% | Keep |
|
Aur Resources |
AUR |
Oct. 16/05 |
$8.57 |
1.12% |
52.80% |
110.04% |
g | +155.26% | Keep |
|
Steepleback Industrial Group |
SID |
Jan. 18/04 |
$2.95 |
-16.67% |
-15.49% |
103.39% |
h | +2800.00% | Keep |
|
Garda World Security |
GW |
Aug. 21/05 |
$12.15 |
2.64% |
49.14% |
85.60% |
g | +41.67% | Keep |
|
RONA Inc. |
RON |
Nov. 16/03 |
$12.78 |
5.59% |
-1.31% |
65.71% |
h | +13.11% | Drop |
|
Western Lakota Energy Services |
WLE |
July 17/05 |
$9.45 |
3.95% |
-11.98% |
61.69% |
n/a | n/a | Drop - TO |
|
McCoy Brothers |
MCB |
May 15/05 |
$4.65 |
-13.58% |
11.11% |
50.54% |
g | -22.22% | Keep |
|
WFI Inc. |
WFI |
May 19/06 |
$16.80 |
32.11% |
49.40% |
49.40% |
h | +114.29% | Keep |
|
Stella-Jones Inc. |
SJ |
Feb. 19/06 |
$15.75 |
13.39% |
33.33% |
33.33% |
g | +35.90% | Keep |
|
Gildan Activewear |
GIL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$42.01 |
2.94% |
8.68% |
29.35% |
g | +24.56% | Keep |
|
easyhome |
EH |
Dec. 17/04 |
$12.93 |
-1.54% |
1.27% |
23.71% |
i | T | Drop |
|
Teck Cominco |
TCK.B |
Dec. 18/05 |
$57.75 |
4.51% |
12.81% |
21.21% |
i | +165.77% | Keep |
|
Research In Motion |
RIM |
Sept. 19/04 |
$94.82 |
47.29% |
49.30% |
20.85% |
h | +32.14% | Keep |
|
Big Rock Brewery Income Trust |
BR.UN |
Oct. 15/04 |
$16.05 |
9.08% |
0.31% |
20.56% |
g | +64.29% | Keep |
|
Foremost Income Fund |
FMO.UN |
June 16/06 |
$17.15 |
0.26% |
13.12% |
13.12% |
i | +81.82% | Keep |
|
Vicwest Income Fund |
VIC.UN |
June 16/06 |
$15.98 |
12.85% |
12.64% |
12.64% |
g | +56.31% | Keep |
|
Sherritt International |
S |
Nov. 19/04 |
$8.66 |
-12.71% |
-3.47% |
12.59% |
i | +24.14% | Drop |
|
Le Chateau |
CTU.A |
June 19/05 |
$39.06 |
-2.77% |
-10.90% |
9.45% |
h | -43.42% | Keep |
|
Xceed Mortgage Corporation |
XMC |
Jan. 16/05 |
$5.05 |
-10.71% |
-12.70% |
8.91% |
i | -20.69% | Drop |
|
Com Dev International |
CDV |
Sept. 18/06 |
$5.73 |
8.03% |
8.03% |
8.03% |
h | +233.33% | Keep |
|
Carfinco Income Fund |
CFN.UN |
Aug. 21/06 |
$3.88 |
6.96% |
6.96% |
6.96% |
g | +33.33% | Keep |
|
Intrawest Corporation |
ITW |
Mar. 19/06 |
$37.58 |
9.27% |
2.58% |
2.58% |
g | L | Drop - TO |
|
Silver Wheaton |
SLW |
July 17/06 |
$10.40 |
0.87% |
0.87% |
0.87% |
i | +175.00% | Keep |
|
Ritchie Brothers |
RBA |
Mar. 19/06 |
$59.30 |
0.64% |
0.86% |
0.86% |
h | +14.75% | Keep |
|
Pareto Corp. |
PTO |
Aug. 21/05 |
$1.13 |
-8.33% |
-19.71% |
-2.65% |
g | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Sino-Forest Corporation |
TRE |
Dec. 18/05 |
$4.40 |
-25.74% |
-13.56% |
-2.95% |
h | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Potash Corporation |
POT |
June 19/05 |
$119.85 |
21.36% |
24.62% |
-3.20% |
h | +13.01% | Keep |
|
Commercial Solutions |
CSA |
May 21/06 |
$7.09 |
-17.58% |
-4.09% |
-4.09% |
i | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Savannah Energy Services |
SVY |
Feb. 20/05 |
$19.35 |
-19.98% |
-36.01% |
-5.43% |
i | -99.82% | Drop |
|
GMP Capital Trust |
GMP.UN |
June 16/06 |
$22.50 |
-9.69% |
-5.56% |
-5.56% |
i | +53.33% | Keep |
|
Parkland Income Fund |
PKI.UN |
Sept. 18/06 |
$31.94 |
-5.98% |
-5.98% |
-5.98% |
g | +212.50% | Keep |
|
Royal Gold |
RGL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$33.50 |
-0.42% |
-23.63% |
-7.76% |
i | -11.76% | Drop |
|
Ensign Energy Services |
ESI |
Nov. 20/05 |
$20.12 |
-19.14% |
-20.93% |
-7.80% |
i | +275.00% | Keep |
|
Pacific & Western Credit |
PWC |
Aug. 21/06 |
$12.95 |
-9.27% |
-9.27% |
-9.27% |
i | +608.33% | Keep |
|
FirstService Corporation |
FSV |
Feb. 19/06 |
$29.50 |
-11.19% |
-9.83% |
-9.83% |
i | +11.43% | Keep |
|
Wajax Income Fund |
WJX.UN |
May 19/06 |
$41.79 |
-12.68% |
-15.77% |
-15.77% |
i | +484.21% | Keep |
|
March Networks |
MN |
Nov. 20/05 |
$22.50 |
-20.39% |
-41.79% |
-16.36% |
i | +47.37% | Keep |
|
Aber Diamonds |
ABZ |
Jan. 15/06 |
$46.77 |
3.92% |
-23.99% |
-23.99% |
i | +78.79% | Keep |
|
MacDonald Dettwiler |
MDA |
April 16/06 |
$50.40 |
-17.94% |
-25.20% |
-25.20% |
g | +17.07% | Keep |
|
Calfrac Well Services |
CFW |
Mar. 20/05 |
$36.75 |
-8.96% |
-45.78% |
-40.54% |
i | T | Drop |
|
Cryptologic |
CRY |
May 15/05 |
$42.05 |
-8.64% |
7.98% |
-41.43% |
i | +78.79% | Drop |
|
Centurion Energy |
CUX |
Jan. 16/05 |
$14.45 |
-2.70% |
-39.33% |
-52.60% |
g | +133.33% | Drop |
|
-34.23% |
255.61% |
9546.23% |
|||||||
|
-0.50% |
3.76% |
140.39% |
Dropped in Q3 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are Home Capital Group (-11.65%, +923.33%), Peyto Energy Trust (-21.50%, +673.98%), Reitman’s (+11.85%, +656.94%), Falconbridge (+80.64%, 217.47%), RONA Inc. (-1.31%, +65.71%), Western Lakota Energy Services (-11.98%, +61.69%), easyhome (+1.27%, +23.71%), Sherritt International (-3.47%, +12.59%), Xceed Mortgage Corporation (-12.70%, +8.91%), Intrawest (+2.58%, +2.58%), Savannah Energy Services (-36.01%, -5.43%), Royal Gold (-23.63%, -7.76%), Calfrac Well Service (-45.78%, -40.54%), Cryptologic (+7.98%, -41.43%), and Centurion Energy (-39.33%, -52.60%)
The information in this table was derived using the Portfolio Tracking feature at globeinvestor.com