| Break Out Stocks 2005 Year End Review |
Once again we are conducting our quarterly review and re-evaluating the stocks on our Watched List to see if we want to keep following them.
We sometimes err in our recommendations and sometimes circumstances change and a stock that had been behaving well starts to head south.
We're also looking for ways to improve our selection and culling criteria and you'll find a review of our previous paring jobs elsewhere. For this effort we are following much the same plan, dropping stocks that meet all three of the following three criteria:
And we are dropping any stocks we've had for over a year that have failed to grow by 25% or have had for two years and have failed to grow by 50%. We are making exceptions for stocks that are in a current up trend or are growing earnings.
The table below gives the complete picture. We're dropping Ainsworth Lumber as it is in a downtrend, did not make our Top 500 List and has had two consecutive quarters of declining earnings.
Easyhome has been in our Watched List over a year and has not gained 25% but it is close and we have decided to keep it on the list for another quarter. Sherritt International is also marginal but we are holding for at least another quarter. Research in Motion has been dicey as well but is still growing earnings. Its woes are related to continuing patent disputes and if these are settled in RIM's favor, the stock should be able to continue its long term growth. Centurion Energy also did not set the world on fire this year after being a top stock the year before. But it is starting to turn around and we will keep it on our list for now.
It should be noted, of course, that because we are dropping them from our Watched List doesn't necessarily mean they are poor stocks. We've dropped stocks before only to see them catch fire and soar subsequently. It just means that I no longer consider the upside odds very good. I may add one or more back in at a later date.
Note: T = turnaround from loss to profit, L means the company had a loss in the most recent quarter, * means quarterly earnings per share not available.
| Name | Symbol |
Date Featured |
Price Then |
Change Q4 |
Change YTD |
Change Since Profiled |
Dec. RS Change |
Recent Trend |
QEPS Change |
Status |
|
Home Capital Group |
HCG |
Nov. 20/00 |
$3.00 |
-7.33% |
11.20% |
1058.33% |
off list | i | +36.36% | Keep |
|
Peyto Energy Trust |
PEY.UN |
Feb. 22/02 |
$2.58 |
-16.62% |
6.17% |
886.02% |
off list | h | +58.33% | Keep |
|
Alimentation Couche-Tard |
ATD.SV.B |
Dec. 4/00 |
$2.88 |
13.59% |
31.83% |
713.91% |
new | h | +42.11% | Keep |
|
Reitmans (Canada) |
RET.A |
July 6/01 |
$2.53 |
1.42% |
19.79% |
576.74% |
off list | g | +8.00% | Keep |
|
Zargon Oil & Gas |
ZAR.UN |
Jan. 29/01 |
$4.70 |
-8.63% |
33.12% |
575.53% |
-1.55 | h | +39.29% | Keep |
|
Melcor Developments |
MRD |
Mar. 2/01 |
$20.30 |
16.18% |
132.35% |
483.74% |
-0.23 | h | +361.24% | Keep |
|
TransForce Income Fund |
TIF.UN |
Jan. 18/02 |
$3.02 |
4.53% |
15.66% |
464.90% |
off list | h | +164.71% | Keep |
|
Stantec Inc. |
STN |
Apr. 20/01 |
$8.25 |
10.42% |
50.11% |
381.82% |
-3.47 | h | +45.45% | Keep |
|
SNC-Lavalin Group |
SNC |
Mar. 23/01 |
$16.25 |
1.58% |
31.55% |
369.54% |
-1.71 | g | -7.02% | Keep |
|
Trican Well Service |
TCW |
Apr. 18/04 |
$12.16 |
32.36% |
152.63% |
360.40% |
-0.29 | h | +342.86% | Keep |
|
Canada Bread Co. |
CBY |
May 18/01 |
$13.00 |
16.85% |
25.53% |
353.85% |
-11.95 | h | +23.29% | Keep |
|
Contrans Income Fund |
CSS.UN |
Oct. 12/01 |
$3.63 |
1.01% |
0.21% |
287.33% |
off list | h | +41.18% | Keep |
|
CCS Income Fund |
CCR.UN |
May 18/03 |
$10.15 |
19.43% |
68.45% |
264.71% |
-2.70 | h | +108.70% | Keep |
|
Richelieu Hardware |
RCH |
Dec. 4/00 |
$7.00 |
7.73% |
7.87% |
238.57% |
off list | h | 0.0% | Keep |
|
Goldcorp Inc. |
G |
May 25/01 |
$7.83 |
11.16% |
43.41% |
230.78% |
+2.66 | h | +200.0% | Keep |
|
GSW Inc. |
GSW.B |
May 16/04 |
$34.73 |
30.59% |
146.67% |
219.61% |
+0.54 | h | +165.66% | Keep |
|
Fortis Inc. |
FTS |
Mar. 16/01 |
$9.50 |
0.68% |
39.68% |
155.47% |
-5.45 | g | +32.00% | Keep |
|
Niko Resources |
NKO |
Nov. 17/02 |
$22.20 |
8.27% |
9.41% |
148.74% |
off list | h | -42.11% | Keep |
|
CML Healthcare Income Fund |
CLC.UN |
Apr. 12/02 |
$5.85 |
-2.83% |
7.87% |
146.15% |
off list | h | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Steepleback Industrial Group |
SID |
Jan. 18/04 |
$2.95 |
5.97% |
77.94% |
140.68% |
-1.92 | h | L | Keep |
|
BMTC Group |
GBT.SV.A |
Aug. 20/02 |
$6.98 |
14.29% |
25.98% |
129.39% |
-2.24 | h | +6.98% | Keep |
|
Finning International |
FTT |
May 11/01 |
$16.40 |
-7.24% |
6.14% |
126.46% |
off list | i | -10.00% | Keep |
|
TSX Group |
X |
Jan. 18/04 |
$22.50 |
16.17% |
74.45% |
108.13% |
+1.77 | h | +82.61% | Keep |
|
AlarmForce |
AF |
Sept. 21/03 |
$1.92 |
-2.47% |
11.27% |
105.73% |
off list | h | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Cameco Corp. |
CCO |
Nov. 19/04 |
$36.87 |
18.98% |
75.90% |
100.14% |
-0.51 | h | +48.28% | Keep |
|
Pason Systems |
PSI |
May 16/04 |
$15.00 |
6.33% |
56.22% |
92.67% |
+1.53 | h | +80.00% | Keep |
|
ZCL Composites |
ZCL |
June 20/04 |
$2.05 |
26.33% |
10.82% |
84.88% |
off list | h | -42.86% | Keep |
|
Western Lakota Energy Services |
WLE |
July 17/05 |
$9.45 |
24.00% |
83.70% |
83.70% |
-0.49 | h | +85.71% | Keep |
|
Falconbridge Ltd. |
FAL.LV |
Mar. 14/04 |
$19.63 |
11.04% |
96.36% |
75.75% |
-2.07 | h | +47.37% | Keep |
|
RONA Inc. |
RON |
Nov. 16/03 |
$12.78 |
-6.58% |
5.15% |
67.91% |
off list | i | +21.05% | Keep |
|
Savannah Energy Services |
SVY |
Feb. 20/05 |
$19.35 |
4.11% |
47.80% |
47.80% |
-1.58 | h | +52.94% | Keep |
|
March Networks |
MN |
Nov. 20/05 |
$22.50 |
43.69% |
43.69% |
43.69% |
n/a | h | +114.29% | Keep |
|
Aur Resources |
AUR |
Oct. 16/05 |
$8.57 |
37.46% |
37.46% |
37.46% |
+1.18 | h | +50.0% | Keep |
|
McCoy |
MCB |
May 15/05 |
$4.65 |
0.80% |
35.48% |
35.48% |
+0.05 | g | +300.00% | Keep |
|
La Senza |
LSZ.SV |
April 17/05 |
$14.65 |
-4.76% |
29.69% |
29.69% |
-4.54 | g | T | Keep |
|
BlackRock Ventures |
BVI |
Jan. 16/05 |
$8.92 |
11.11% |
28.92% |
28.92% |
+4.54 | h | +150.00% | Keep |
|
Kingsway Financial Services |
KFS |
July 20/03 |
$18.60 |
12.71% |
23.68% |
26.34% |
-0.82 | h | +22.22% | Keep |
|
Xceed Mortgage Corporation |
XMC |
Jan. 16/05 |
$5.05 |
-15.32% |
24.75% |
24.75% |
-5.36 | i | +81.25% | Keep |
|
Garda World Security |
GW |
Aug. 21/05 |
$12.15 |
35.12% |
24.44% |
24.44% |
-2.26 | h | +44.44% | Keep |
|
Le Chateau |
CTU.SV.A |
June 19/05 |
$39.06 |
-1.86% |
22.84% |
22.84% |
-1.15 | g | +12.50% | Keep |
|
easyhome |
EH |
Dec. 17/04 |
$12.93 |
-3.07% |
24.74% |
22.17% |
+0.98 | g | -43.90% | Keep |
|
Killam Properties |
KMP |
Jan. 18/04 |
$2.36 |
6.67% |
40.49% |
22.03% |
-4.96 | h | +19.23% | Keep |
|
Pareto Corp. |
PTO |
Aug. 21/05 |
$1.13 |
9.60% |
21.24% |
21.24% |
off list | g | 0.00% | Keep |
|
Royal Gold |
RGL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$33.50 |
39.52% |
20.78% |
20.78% |
+6.52 | h | +16.67% | Keep |
|
Big Rock Brewery Income Trust |
BR.UN |
Oct. 15/04 |
$16.05 |
11.63% |
7.17% |
20.19% |
off list | h | +19.35% | Keep |
|
Gildan Activewear |
GIL |
Sept. 18/05 |
$42.01 |
12.84% |
19.02% |
19.02% |
-0.14 | h | +29.55% | Keep |
|
Sherritt International |
S |
Nov. 19/04 |
$8.66 |
-7.76% |
1.61% |
16.63% |
off list | h | -35.00% | Keep |
|
Ensign Energy Services |
ESI |
Nov. 20/05 |
$40.24 |
16.60% |
16.60% |
16.60% |
+0.45 | h | +65.22% | Keep |
|
Sino-Forest Corporation |
TRE |
Dec. 18/05 |
$4.40 |
12.27% |
12.27% |
12.27% |
+8.97 | h | +118.18% | Keep |
|
Calfrac Well Services |
CFW |
Mar. 20/05 |
$36.75 |
1.90% |
9.66% |
9.66% |
-0.80 | h | +2.94% | Keep |
|
Teck Cominco |
TEK.SV.B |
Dec. 18/05 |
$57.75 |
7.45% |
7.45% |
7.45% |
+2.40 | h | +222.58% | Keep |
|
Great Canadian Gaming |
GCD |
Mar. 20/05 |
$19.32 |
-7.72% |
-15.22% |
-15.22% |
off list | h | +22.22% | Keep |
|
Research In Motion |
RIM |
Sept. 19/04 |
$94.82 |
-3.22% |
-22.30% |
-19.06% |
off list | g | +32.61% | Keep |
|
Ainsworth Lumber Co. |
ANS |
Aug. 15/04 |
$30.40 |
-20.17% |
-3.43% |
-21.22% |
off list | i | -34.23% | Drop |
|
Centurion Energy |
CUX |
Jan. 16/05 |
$14.45 |
-13.88% |
-21.87% |
-21.87% |
off list | h | +13.33% | Keep |
|
Potash Corporation |
POT |
June 19/05 |
$119.85 |
-14.07% |
-22.32% |
-22.32% |
off list | g | +72.06% | Keep |
|
Cryptologic |
CRY |
May 15/05 |
$42.05 |
12.09% |
-45.76% |
-45.76% |
off list | h | +71.43% | Keep |
|
Average Gain |
|
|
|
7.56% |
30.29% |
164.84% |
Note that the stocks on our Watched List gained an average of 7.56% in the 4th quarter and an average of 30.29% for the year (this includes all the new stocks featured during the year and their partial year returns) and an average of 164.84% since profiled.
Dropped in Q 4 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) is Ainsworth Lumber (-3.43%, -21.22%)
Dropped in Q 3 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are CIBC (0.51%, 9.75%), Draxis Healthcare (-9.73%, -11.07%), Chartwell Technology (-35.67%, -23.04%), Mad Catz Interactive (-53.49%, -53.49%)
Dropped in Q2 (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are Axcan Pharma (-19.97%, -32.08%), Calian Technology (-18.22%, 218.18%), Cinram (+6.19%, -9.02%), Ketch Resources Trust (-32.86%, +4.01%), Westjet (+13.84%, -34.91%)
Dropped in Q1 were Cott Corporation (-0.98%, +43.37%), Zenon Environmental (-10.49%, -2.60%), Coolbrands International (-1.68%, -12.68%), QLT Inc. (-19.45%, -31.34%)
The information in this table was derived using the Portfolio Tracking feature at globeinvestor.com