Break Out Stocks Q1 2005 Review

Once again we are conducting our quarterly review and re-evaluating the stocks on our Watched List to see if we want to keep following them.

We sometimes err in our recommendations and sometimes circumstances change and a stock that had been behaving well starts to  head south.

We're also looking for ways to improve our selection and culling criteria and you'll find a review of our previous paring jobs elsewhere. For this effort we are following much the same plan, dropping stocks that meet all three of the following three criteria:

And we are dropping any stocks we've had for over a year that have failed to grow by 25% or have had for two years and have failed to grow by 50%. We are making exceptions for stocks that are in a current up trend or are growing earnings.

The table below gives the complete picture. We are dropping four stocks that we believe have either run their course or are going nowhere. They are Cott Corporation, Zenon Environmental, Coolbrands International and QLT Inc.  There are a few that are  just marginal keepers in our list but we're not ready to write them off yet.

It should be noted, of course, that we are dropping them from our Watched List doesn't necessarily mean they are poor stocks.  We've dropped stocks before only to see them catch fire and soar subsequently. It just means that I no longer consider the upside odds very good. I may add one or more back in at a later date.

Note: T = turnaround from loss to profit, L means the company had a loss in the most recent quarter, * means quarterly earnings per share not available.

Name

Symbol

Date Featured

Price Then

Change Q1

Change Since Profiled

Mar. RS Change Recent Trend QEPS Change Status

Home Capital Group

HCG

Nov. 20/00

$3.00

7.78%

1022.67%

-3.27 h +40.0% Keep

Peyto Energy Trust

PEY.UN

Feb. 22/02

$5.15

8.09%

903.88%

-1.09 h L Keep

Alimentation Couche-Tard

ATD.SV.B

Dec. 4/00

$2.88

-1.13%

510.43%

+0.94 g +400.0% Keep

Reitmans (Canada)

RET.A

July 6/01

$5.07

-3.85%

442.41%

+1.05 i +105.9% Keep

TransForce Income Fund

TIF.UN

Jan. 18/02

$3.11

6.70%

422.51%

-1.04 h +59.1% Keep

Zargon Oil & Gas

ZAR.UN

Jan. 29/01

$4.70

2.94%

422.34%

-3.06 h +54.5% Keep

Contrans Income Fund

CSS.UN

Oct. 12/01

$3.63

13.90%

340.22%

+4.03 h +175.0% Keep

SNC-Lavalin Group

SNC

Mar. 23/01

$16.25

20.50%

330.09%

+6.68 h +57.9% Keep

Canada Bread Co.

CBY

May 18/01

$13.00

16.53%

321.31%

+0.14 h +63.0% Keep

Richelieu Hardware

RCH

Dec. 4/00

$7.00

13.79%

257.14%

new h +16.7% Keep

Stantec Inc.

STN

Apr. 20/01

$8.25

10.27%

253.94%

off list h +51.5% Keep

Calian Technologies

CTY

Oct. 1/02

$3.85

-9.95%

250.39%

off list i -10.0% Keep

Melcor Developments

MRD

Mar. 2/01

$20.30

25.98%

216.50%

+3.84 h +60.4% Keep

Niko Resources

NKO

Nov. 17/02

$22.20

23.72%

181.26%

-0.55 h +166.7% Keep

CCS Income Trust

CCR.UN

May 18/03

$10.15

26.61%

174.13%

+3.39 h +135.0% Keep

CML Healthcare Income Fund

CLC.UN

Apr. 12/02

$5.85

1.87%

132.48%

off list g +133.3% Keep

AlarmForce

AF

Sept. 21/03

$1.92

25.35%

131.77%

new h +9.1% Keep

Goldcorp Inc.

G

May 25/01

$7.83

-4.54%

120.18%

off list i +8.3% Keep

Trican Well Service

TCW

Apr. 18/04

$36.49

17.29%

113.76%

-0.22 h +70.7% Keep

BMTC Group

GBT.SV.A

Aug. 20/02

$6.98

10.55%

101.29%

new h -24.3% Keep

Finning International

FTT

May 11/01

$16.40

-6.03%

100.49%

off list i -36.1% Keep

Fortis Inc.

FTS

Mar. 16/01

$38.00

2.73%

87.89%

off list g +2.4% Keep

RONA Inc.

RON

Nov. 16/03

$12.78

15.93%

85.13%

+0.99 h +40.5% Keep

Chartwell Technology

CWH

Dec. 17/04

$5.60

30.60%

56.25%

-1.09 h +166.7% Keep

Cameco Corp.

CCO

Nov. 19/04

$36.87

27.70%

45.29%

-0.58 h +5.0% Keep

ZCL Composites

ZCL

June 20/04

$2.05

-13.16%

44.88%

-0.37 i -16.7% Keep

Cott Corp.

BCB

July 27/01

$20.50

-0.98%

43.37%

off list g -30.4% Drop

GSW Inc.

GSW.SV.B

May 16/04

$34.73

8.33%

40.37%

-0.24 h +13.1% Keep

TSX Group

X

Jan. 18/04

$45.00

16.69%

39.22%

new h +2.53% Keep

Steepleback Industrial Group

SID

Jan. 18/04

$2.95

0.25%

35.59%

off list g -86.7% Keep

Pason Systems

PSI

May 16/04

$30.00

2.30%

26.17%

-5.05 g +41.9% Keep

Falconbridge Ltd.

FL

Mar. 14/04

$34.75

39.55%

24.89%

new h +109.8% Keep

Ketch Resources Trust

KER.UN

July 18/04

$10.96

-22.26%

20.44%

off list i +44.4% Keep

BlackRock Ventures

BVI

Jan. 16/05

$8.92

18.39%

18.39%

-0.11 h +100.0% Keep

Mad Catz Interactive

MCZ

Feb. 20/05

$1.72

15.70%

15.70%

+5.28 h +133.3% Keep

Sherritt International

S

Nov. 19/04

$8.66

-0.40%

14.32%

-0.80 g -6.7% Keep

Killam Properties

KMP

Jan. 18/04

$2.36

29.76%

12.71%

+0.95 h T Keep

CIBC

CM

Feb. 15/04

$66.15

1.56%

10.90%

off list g +26.0% Keep

Big Rock Brewery Income Trust

BR.UN

Oct. 15/04

$16.05

-1.94%

9.97%

-4.01 g +0.0% Keep

easyhome

EH

Dec. 17/04

$19.40

11.32%

9.02%

-2.56 h -16.7% Keep

Centurion Energy

CUX

Jan. 16/05

$14.45

6.57%

6.57%

+0.05 h +0.0% Keep

Ainsworth Lumber Co.

ANS

Aug. 15/04

$30.40

30.24%

6.25%

-9.19 h +29.1%  Keep

Draxis Health

DAX

Feb. 15/04

$6.05

5.03%

3.47%

off list h +31.7%  Keep

Kingsway Financial Services

KFS

July 20/03

$18.60

-1.63%

0.48%

-3.01 g +100.0% Keep

Great Canadian Gaming

GCD

Mar. 20/05

$48.30

-0.31%

-0.31%

-0.13 h +580.0% Keep

Cinram

CRW

Aug. 17/03

$25.83

16.00%

-0.62%

off list h +46.3% Keep

Xceed Mortgage Corporation

XMC

Jan. 16/05

$5.05

-0.99%

-0.99%

off list g -8.3% Keep

Savannah Energy Services

SVY

Feb. 20/05

$19.35

-1.71%

-1.71%

+0.26 h +115.4% Keep

Research In Motion

RIM

Sept. 19/04

$94.82

-6.14%

-2.23%

+10.90 i L Keep

Zenon Environmental

ZEN

Mar. 14/04

$21.55

-10.49%

-2.60%

off list i -4.8% Drop

Calfrac Well Services

CFW

Mar. 20/05

$36.75

-11.32%

-11.32%

new h +70.7% Keep

CoolBrands International

COB.A

June 15/03

$10.25

-1.86%

-12.68%

off list g -44.4% Drop

Westjet Airlines

WJA

Jan. 18/04

$20.97

30.53%

-25.37%

off list h L Keep

Axcan Pharma

AXP

June 20/04

$27.43

-12.46%

-25.70%

off list i -23.8% Keep

QLT Inc.

QLT

Jan. 18/04

$22.56

-19.45%

-31.34%

off list i L Drop

Aggregate Change

410.45%

7291.60%        

Average Change

7.46%

132.57%        

Dropped (with YTD and Total Gain in brackets) are Cott Corporation (-0.98%, +43.37%), Zenon Environmental (-10.49%, -2.60%), Coolbrands International (-1.68%, -12.68%), QLT Inc. (-19.45%, -31.34%)

The information in this table was derived using the Portfolio Tracking feature at globeinvestor.com